February 2011 MLS Report

Our average sales price has dropped 13% from Year End 2010; that is quite a fall. When you break down the sales that took place in February 2011 there are only 4 transactions that closed above $700,000. This greatly affects our monthly average sales price, our current monthly average sold price is $200,463 for the month of February. We are on the border of our lowest monthly average sold price in a long time.

February’s average sales price has managed to show an increase of .5% from January. Sold units are down 17 units over last month (about 6.2%) and down 31 from last February. In the month of February we saw a decrease of 20 homes in our listing inventory, we have 4,698 homes on the market as of March 1st. This continues to put us in a strong buyer’s market with a listing inventory of just over an 18.2 month supply. With the low sales in February this affects our month supply with an increase of .4 months from last month with 17.8. Our average list price has started the year under $350,000 range; we are currently at $342,123. In February sellers paid concessions in about 27.5% of all the month’s transactions. Our average days on the market are at 132 days. The list to sold ratio has gone south to 92.7% this number needs to continue to get better. The number of homes that sold in 15 days or less continues to remain very low, 8.5% of February sold homes. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.88% with an average 0.7 points for the week ending March 10, 2011. We have already hit the historic lows in mortgage rates and they are now going for a new dip.

Listing Inventory

In February we saw a slight decrease in listing inventory of 20 units. We are about 541 units under March 1, 2010 and 806 units under March 1, 2009. We have 4,698 single family homes for sale in our MLS. The average list price of $342,123 is down by $930 from last month.

Monthly Average Sold Price – this is not a pretty section

Our monthly average sold price is up by $82.00 from last month and down 16.8% from February 2010. Our average sold price is down by $40,422 from February 2010. February average sold price ($200,463) shows a decrease of 13.0% from year end 2010.

Monthly Sold Units

We are about 17 units shy of matching February 2010 sold homes of 275, while this February we have sold 258 homes. I am sure as February gets closed out we will see the numbers get close to last year’s production. The number of sold homes is down 31 homes from February 2010.

Average Sold Price Year to Date

Year over year our year to date numbers have dipped a little.

2003 year end average sale price $ 186,137
2004 year end average sale price $ 210,048
2005 year end average sale price $ 254,080
2006 year end average sale price $ 264,498
2007 year end average sale price $ 273,408
2008 year end average sale price $256,498
2009 year end average sale price $234,379
2010 year to date average sale price $230,409

While our 2010 year end numbers are lower than year end 2009 they do show promising signs that our sales are on the upswing. Our current Year to date average sold price - $200,421

Rolling 12 months

Our rolling 12 months gives us a better look at our production. It helps to smooth out a month that jumps up and down. When we look at March 1st, 2010 to February 28th, 2011 we have 4,544 sold units and when we compare the year prior March 1st, 2009 to February 28th, 2010 we have a 52 unit gain (4,492 sold units). When we look at the same rolling 12 months for average sold price we see that we are only down by 3.2%. So the dates of 3/1/2010 to 2/28/2011 we have an average sold price of $227,153 while from 3/1/2009 to 2/28/2010 we had an average sold price $234,564.

Median Sold Price

Our Median sold price increased this month by 3.0% from last month. Our national numbers lag by one month. Our median sales price continues its jagged path – up then down then up and now up just slightly. I am hoping that our January dip in median sold price is a onetime event. This spring I hope we see a steady climb. On a National scale the economy is trying to improve and hopefully we can see this in the national median sales.

Pending - A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not yet closed. Sales are typically finalized within one to two months from signing. With the new sales contract I am also counting Active Due Diligence and pending contracts. I look at the total pending units on a regular basis and this is how they chart out. Our pending index has dropped to our low point during the winter. In December we bottomed out about 575 units, we have since rebounded and have over 735 units that are pending – this is a 27.8% increase since the end of 2010. With the new contract in place this is a good start to 2011.

Market Absorption rate – The number of homes sold in January, 258 divided by the current listing inventory, 4,698 gives us an 18.2 month supply of single family homes. This increased by .4 months from last month. We need to get this inventory back under 12 months supply. With a large inventory and the low sales in February this affects our market absorption.

List to Sold price ratio – the average list price of the sold properties is $216,220 and the average sold price is $200,463 for February which gives us a 92.7% list to sold price ratio – a serious decrease from last month. We have now managed to stay under 95% for over a year and several months. I want to quit counting the number of months and get this trend reversed. This is one of the lowest ratio’s we have had in a while.

Seller Concessions – We had 27.5% of sold properties report a sales concession for February, a decrease of 3.1%. We want this number to go lower.

Days on Market – The average days on market for the sold properties is now at 132 for February – same as last month. That is about 4.5 months to keep a property on the market. Only 8.5% of the properties were placed under contract in less than 15 days for the month of February.

10 year Comparison – the numbers are up

There has been a lot of news lately about the results of the latest census. So I thought I would look at the Annual Sales that took place in 2001 and compare them to the current Annual Sales that took place in 2010. According to the Census - New Hanover County population growth was 26.4% and the City of Wilmington had a population growth of 40.4% from the 2000 Census. In 2001 the average sold price in New Hanover County was $179,781 while in 2010 the average sold price is $262,180 – that is a 45.8% growth or 4.58% average annual appreciation. In 2001 the average sold price in the City of Wilmington was $166,424 while in 2010 the average sold price is $246,287 – that is a 48% growth or 4.8% average annual appreciation.

Carolina & Kure Beach

There are currently 395 single family homes for sale and this represents little change from February 1, 2011 and 8.4% of our total WRAR inventory. The average list price is $381,410 and decrease of about $8,596 from February. In February there were 18 homes sold, divide that by the homes available and you have a 21.9 monthly supply of homes in Carolina and Kure Beach. The average sold price for the month of February was $266,633 and is up $35,680 from last month. When we look at a rolling 12 months for Carolina & Kure Beach we are up by 66 units and our sold prices are down 7.2% from the previous rolling 12 months.

This data was pulled on March 13, 2011, based on information from the Wilmington Regional Association of REALTORS Incorporated, for the period Jan. 1, 2005 through February 28, 2011.

Kirk Pugh

Accredited Buyer Representaive
Broker/REALTOR
Coldwell Banker Sea Coast Realty
http://www.searchingwrightsvillebeach.com/
"Real Solutions in Real Property"
910-622-3478

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