June 2011 Market Report

June Market Report




With the year half over there are so many different factors to consider when it comes to our struggling economy. A lot of it comes down to Jobs and the employment outlook. This past Friday’s jobs report did not look good; it was dismal for the month of June, showing only 18,000 jobs gained. The unemployment rate also ticked up from 9.1% to 9.2% - remember in a recovery we are supposed to be decreasing the unemployment rate and increasing the jobs. We are also dealing with many issues in the housing industry. Bank regulators want tighter lending rules, making permanent a requirement for down payments of 20% (QRM’s) and setting high income and credit hurdles to prevent a recurrence of the recent boom and bust. This is still being explored and talked about over the next couple of months. There are also proposals to curb mortgage interest write-offs.



In case you wanted to know – At the end of 2009, 10% of mortgages had at least 1 payment past due and another 5% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process. At the end of 2010, 9% of mortgages had at least 1 payment past due and another 5% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process. As of the end of the 1st quarter 2011, 8% of mortgages had at least 1 payment past due and another 4% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process.

(Source: Mortgage Bankers Association)



With the year half over our market is still bumping along the bottom.

We have a few very good bright spots:

• Average sold price is up$20,309 over last month and down $1,588 from last June.

• Sold units are up 32 units over last month but down 57 units from last June.

• The average sold price increased to $237,930 a 9.3% gain over last month.

• Our sold units hit 466; an increase of 32 units from last month.

• On July 1 we saw a decrease of 16 homes in our listing inventory; we have 4,848 homes on the market as of July 1st.

• This adjusted our month’s supply with just over 10.4 months a good decrease from last month’s 12.2.

• Our average list price has continued a small increase each month since the start of the year; we are currently at $351,978.

• In June sellers paid concessions in about 29.6% of all the month’s transactions about 5% lower than last month.

• Our average days on the market increased to 167 days.

• The list to sold ratio has decreased a little to 93.4% this number needs to continue to get better. (Ask me why this number is misleading!)

• The number of homes that sold in 15 days or less continues to remain very low, 8.6% of June sold homes.





Listing Inventory

In June we saw a decrease in listing inventory by 16 units from last month. We are about 881 units under July 1, 2010. We have 4,848 single family homes for sale in our MLS. The average list price of $351,978 is up by $1,150 from last month. This is the highest we have seen since December 2010. In the last 6 months our average listing price has ranged from $342,123 to $353,465.



Monthly Average Sold Price

June average sold price ($237,930) shows an increase of 9.3% from last month. Our monthly average sold price is up $20,309 from last month and down just .7% from June 2009. Our average sales price is climbing. The gaps are getting closer. June’s average sold price is 3.2% ahead of our yearend sales price of $230,530. From April to June we have an average sales price increase of 15.0%. These are all good signs for our market.



Monthly Sold Units

We are up 32 sold units (7.4%) from May 2011 and down 57 units from June 2010. We are down 47 sold units from June 2009. Last June was our peak month in sold units for 2010; currently our sold units for June 2011 are 466 the best month of 2011 so far. We continue our up down journey with sold units.



Average Sold Price Year to Date

Year over year our year to date numbers have dipped a little.

2003 year end average sale price $ 186,137

2004 year end average sale price $ 210,048

2005 year end average sale price $ 254,080

2006 year end average sale price $ 264,498

2007 year end average sale price $ 273,408

2008 year end average sale price $256,498

2009 year end average sale price $234,379

2010 year to date average sale price $230,530

Our current Year to date average sold price - $220,392 about -4.4% down from Year End 2010



Rolling 12 months

Our rolling 12 months gives us a better look at our production. It helps to smooth out a month that jumps up and down. When we look at July 1st, 2010 to June 30, 2011 we have 4,421 sold units and when we compare the year prior July 1st, 2009 to June 30, 2010 we have a 433 unit decrease (4,854 sold units). When we look at the same rolling 12 months for average sold price we see that we are only down by 1.2%. So the dates of 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011 we have an average sold price of $227,498 while from 7/1/2009 to 6/30/2010 we had an average sold price $230,325.



Median Sold Price

Our Median sold price increased this month by 3.7% from last month. Our national numbers lag by one month. Our median sales price continues its jagged path – up then down then up and now we start an upward trend. On a National scale the economy is trying to improve and hopefully we can see this in the national median sales. I am hoping we have seen the last dip in Median on a National scale and local level.



Pending

Pending Sales – A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not yet closed. Sales are typically finalized within one to two months from signing. With the new sales contract I am also counting Active Due Diligence and pending contracts. I look at the total pending units on a regular basis and this is how they chart out. Our pending index seems to go back on a slight downward trend. In December we bottomed out about 575 units, we have since rebounded and peaked out in June. We currently have 778 pending sales.



Market Absorbtion Rate-

The number of homes sold in June, 466 divided by the current listing inventory, 4,848 gives us a 10.4 month supply of single family homes. This decreased by 2 months from last month. We need to keep this inventory under 12 months supply. With rates where they are and plenty of inventory; we can get this number down even more.



List to Sold price ratio –

the average list price of the sold properties is $254,655 and the average sold price is $237,930 for June which gives us a 93.4% list to sold price ratio – a decrease from last month. We have now managed to stay under 95% for over a year and several months. I want to quit counting the number of months and get this trend reversed. This is one of the lowest ratio’s we have had in a while.

Seller Concessions – We had 29.6% of sold properties report a sales concession for June, a decrease of 5%. We want this number to go lower.



Days on Market –

The average days on market for the sold properties are now at 167 for June

a 20 day increase from last month. That is about 5 1/2 months to keep a property on the market. Only 8.6% of the properties were placed under contract in less than 15 days for the month of June.



Carolina & Kure Beach

There are currently 382 single family homes for sale and this represents a change of 9 units from June 1, 2011 and 7.9% of our total WRAR inventory. The average list price is $381,525 and increase of about $3,156 from June. In June there were 36 homes sold, divide that by the homes available and you have a 10.6 monthly supply of homes in Carolina and Kure Beach – the best we have had in a long time. The average sold price for the month of June was $292,614 and down by $51,072 from last month. When we look at a rolling 12 months for Carolina & Kure Beach we are up by 73 units and our sold prices are down by 3.7% from the previous rolling 12 months.

This data was pulled on July 9, 2011, based on information from the Wilmington Regional Association of REALTORS Incorporated, for the period Jan. 1, 2005 through June 30, 2011.



Happy House Hunting!



Kirk