Good
morning from Wilmington/Wrightsville Beach,
I start
this month with a big Thank You to all the men and women that have served in
our Armed Forces. With several members of my family having served in the US
Army I am very grateful for the many sacrifices made for our Country’s
freedoms. Thank you.
The Good
News is that the average sold price for October is better than last month and
better than last October. The average sold price for October was up down 3.0%
from last month and up from last year by 13.1%. Our listing inventory decreased
by 45 units from last month, while the average list price decreased by $6,133.
Our pending index is at 1,035 units as of 11/09/13, we are even with last year.
In October sellers paid concessions in about 28.1% of the transactions, an
increase of about 7%. The average concession amount is $3,431. Our average days
on the market decreased 9 days to 116 days. The number of homes that sold in 15
days or less continues to remain very low, 15.1% of October sold homes.
Mortgage
rates have decided it is time to start coming down again, the last three weeks
we have seen very small decrease in the Freddie Mac 30 year fixed rate. The
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.16% with an average 0.8 points for
the week ending November 7, 2013. With smaller inventories, sellers getting 95%
of their asking price, shorter number of days that homes are on the market we
have seen a very good summer and can look toward a strong fall.
The number
of sold homes for October vs. the current inventory keeps us right on the edge
with an 8 month supply of homes, however most of our peak months take place
between May thru July. It seems that most of our comparisons go back to 2007.
If you were considering buying a home now is the time as our basic factors
continue to improve, this just further enhances the opportunities for buyers –
great property deals as well as very attractive mortgage rates, now if ever
there was a great time to buy we can say it is now.
Listing
Inventory
We saw a 45 unit decrease in our listing inventory for
October over the month of September. We are about 125
units over November 1, 2012, up about 3.4%
from last year. A year ago our average list price was $355,369 this year we are
up by .2%. We currently have 3,791 single family homes for sale in our MLS as
of November 1st. January was the low point of our listing inventory
and we are now in the leveling stage of our listings. Typically we are done
with our major growth in listing inventory; a low inventory will make it
difficult to find that “perfect home” for your buyer.
Monthly
Average Sold Price
October
average sold price ($243,635) shows an increase of 3.0%
from last month ($236,535) and up by 13.1%
from October 2012 ($215,349). Our monthly average sold price is up $7,100 from last month and up $28,286 from October 2012.
October average sold price is up 10.7% from our yearend (2012) sales price of $220,102. While we had a
good month we still have a ways to go – the best October was in 2007 when the
average sold price was $286,174 and we are currently 14.9% behind that
number.
Monthly
Sold Units
We are down
67 sold units from September 2013 and
down 31 units from October 2012. This October we are down 12.5% in units sold compared to September 2013. We
are 6.2% sold units behind October 2012.
While we are only 31 units down from last year, the best October is in 2006
with 605 sold units. We continue to have strong monthly sales – in 2012 we
averaged 467 units a month, currently thru October 2013 we are averaging 532
units a month. With an average sales price of $243,635 that is an additional 65
sales a month – Great. We continue our positive trend of upward sales.
Average
Sold Price Year to Date
Year over
year our year to date numbers have dipped a little.
2003 year
end average sale price $ 186,137
2004 year end
average sale price $ 210,048
2005 year
end average sale price $ 254,080
2006 year
end average sale price $ 264,498
2007 year
end average sale price $ 273,408
2008 year
end average sale price $256,510
2009 year
end average sale price $235,116
2010 year end
average sale price $230,459
2011 year
end average sale price $221,848
2012 year
end average sale price $220,102
Our current
Year to Date average sold price - $231,063
about 5.0% up from Year End 2012.
Median
Sold Price
Our Median
sold price increased this month by 9.6%
from last month. Our national numbers lag
by one month. The slight increase in our median sold price in October puts us
back in sync with the National Median. On a National scale the economy is
trying to improve. Ours should level out as we go into the fall. The last 3
months we have cycled with the National Median we just seem to be a month
behind the national numbers. You can see that the National Median had a slight
decrease while we had a little increase. It looks like both National &
local Median are headed to crash into each other as WRAR is increasing while
our National Median seems to be falling.
Pending
Pending Sales
A sale is
listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not
yet closed. Sales are typically finalized within one to two months from
signing. I am counting Active Due Diligence and pending contracts in my total
pending sales. I look at the total pending units on a regular basis and this is
how they chart out. Our pending index was very consistent in 2012 with the
pending index staying above 1,000 units for about 8 months. 2013 has already
started strong with our pending index above 1,000 units since Feb 1st
2013. Currently our pending index is at 1,035 as of 11/9/13 and we were at
1,055 on 10/12/12. We are 47.9% ahead of October 2011. We have had a slight
decrease from the 1st of October 2013 to the 1st of
November 2013 – about a 2.5% decrease in pending sales. This would not be
unusual as fall and winter months come about.
Market
Absorption rate
The number
of homes sold in October, 469 divided by the current listing inventory, 3,791
gives us an 8.0 month
supply of single family homes. This is an increase of 1 month from last month.
I anticipate we have a chance to see this get lower this fall. We are hearing
from agents about more multiple offers as the inventory shrinks.
List to
Sold price ratio
The average
list price of the sold properties is $253,899
and the average sold price is $243,635 for
October; which gives us a 96.0% list to
sold price ratio – We have now gone over a year where we are above the magic
95% list to sales ratio.
Seller
Concessions
We had 28.1% of sold properties report a sales concession
for October, an increase of 6.0% from
last month. We want this number to go lower. The average concession was $3,431
Days on Market
The
average days on market for the sold properties are now at 116 for October a 9 day
decrease from last month. Only 15.1% of the properties were placed under contract in less than 15 days
for the month of October.
Rolling
12 months
Our rolling
12 months gives us a better look at our production. It helps to smooth out a
month that jumps up and down. This is the eighth month our rolling numbers are
ahead of last year in both units and sold price. When we look at November 1st,
2012 to October 31, 2013 we have 6,300
sold units and when we compare the year prior November 1st, 2011 to
October 31, 2012 we have an 895 unit gain
(5,405 sold units). When we look at the same rolling 12 months for average sold
price we see that we are up by 6.5%. So
the dates of 11/1/2012 to 10/31/2013 we have an average sold price of $230,869 while from 11/1/2011 to 10/31/2012 we had
an average sold price $216,678.
Carolina
& Kure Beach
There
are currently 317 single family homes for sale and this represents a change of
4 units from October 1, 2013 and it represents about 8.4% of our total WRAR
inventory. The average list price is $379,374 and a decrease of about $2,484
from October 1, 2013. In October there were 30 homes sold, divide that by the
homes available and you have a
9.5 month supply of homes in Carolina and Kure Beach. The
average sold price for the month of October was $311,775 and is up by $62,151
from September 2013. Our year to date is just a little behind last year - the
average sold price of $283,587 for October 2013 and at $285,781 for October
2012 gives us a loss of .8%. The rolling 12 months for Carolina Beach average
sold price is $281,326 vs. $284,654 for the previous year shows a loss of 1.2%.
Keep up the good work – Carolina & Kure Beach.
This
data was pulled on November 9, 2013, based on information from the Wilmington
Regional Association of REALTORS Incorporated, for the period Jan. 1, 2005
through October 31, 2013.
As reported by CoreLogic this week –
Nationwide - Home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 12.0 percent
in September 2013 compared to September 2012. September marks the 19th
consecutive month of year-over-year home price gains. When it comes to our
local numbers for Sept 12 compared to Sept 13 the average sold price is 5.3%
ahead of last year this time.
On a less statistical note: Those of you that have received my email
correspondence in the past may be surprised to see that my broker affiliation
has changed. As a rule, I am adverse to
change…however, recently the opportunity presented itself for me to align with
the Keller Williams franchise here in Wilmington. I am a huge fan of Gary Keller and in
particular the Keller Williams business model.
Keller Williams is the largest real estate firm in the nation and my
team and I are excited to be a part of the growth and establishment of the kw
brand in Wilmington. Please look for us
on the internet and in social media.
As always, we are here to serve should the
need arise.
Kind regards,
Kirk Pugh
910-622-3478
Check out KirkPughRealty on FB!
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